There's a interesting concept called the Strauss-Howe Generational Theory. It has nuances, and people get all hung up on the details, but the basic idea is this:
Generations consist of a 20 year cycle (more or less). Every 4 generations the memory and experiences of the people "resets" as history is forgotten. Events at the end of the 80 year cycle creates a crisis that changes the ongoing social order. This is referred to as "the fourth turning". There is discussion and speculation on this theory; if we are in a "fourth turning" or not. Look around you and decide for yourself, but the evidence is overwhelming. The question is if there is an opportunity from knowing that things are changing.
80 Years ago was 1941
Almost everyone knows the story of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in Hawaii that started the United States involvement in World War II. Prior to the attack, there was great debate if the United States should get involved in another war in Europe; the second in 20 years. Charles Lindbergh was the American hero who was the first to fly solo across the Atlantic in 1927. On September 11, 1941, just months before the Japanese, attack, Lindbergh spoke in Des Moines, Iowa. He urged his "America First" followers to resist the leadership of the United States leading it to war.
World War II dramatically changed the United States and the world. New experimental, undeveloped technologies were rushed to production and distribution in the name of the war effort; defined as good for the population by the U.S. Government. The war ended with the beginning of the Atomic Age and the additional rapid development of the space program. Soldiers returning from war were afforded education and opportunity. America before World War II was a very different one from Post War America.
The norms established after World War II are still very normal today within the same 80 year cycle of 1941-2021.
Things are charging as this 80 year cycle of 1941 to 2021 is ending.
80 Years before 1941 was 1861
The first major battle of the United States Civil War on July 21, 1861 was called "The First Battle of Bull Run" by the Army of the Potomac (the Union Army). The Confederates (the Army of Northern Virginia) referred to the same battle as "Battle of First Manassas". The North and the South could agree on little, including what to call every battle of the war. The North would refer to a battle by the name of the nearest creek or stream, while the South would refer to the same battle with the name of the nearest town.
There was one battle that both sides would call by the same name: Gettysburg. In that tiny Pennsylvania town over four days in 1863, approximately 50,000 soldiers were killed in total. This is close to the same number of United States soldiers killed in the entire Vietnam conflict from 1959 to 1975. Advancements in technology was the reason for the high casualty rate. Troops prior to the Civil War stood in groups and fired volleys of shots to create a "shotgun" effect. Smooth bore guns were less reliable and less accurate at even short ranges. By 1861 rifles with grooved barrels had deadly accuracy at long distances. Fighting in columns firing as troops did in the American Revolution caused mass casualties on a huge scale on both sides during the Civil War.
The United States was dramatically different after the end of the Civil War. The slaves were "freed", and the economic power of the southern agricultural states was destroyed by the destruction of war and the end of free labor. The reconstruction of the south and the industrial revolution that followed changed everything.
80 Years before 1861 was 1781
The United States of America came into definitive existence in with the surrender of the British Army at Yorktown in October 1781. The British left the county in 1783 and the next "Fourth Turning" began. The United States was really formed in 1787 when the Constitution was written; when the states decided on the formal structure of the government we have today.
A New 80 Year Cycle Begins Now
What opportunities await people who realize this and act to take advantage of the situation? What evidence is around that gives some clues as to what might be to come in the next years? How can anyone position themselves to maximize the potential of this epoch?
Overlapping with the 80 year social cycle is a variable cycle of technological innovation. These cycles are shorter than 80 years, and have an impact on society and humanity.
The Town of Rush, New York has largely and purposely ignored the benefits and opportunities of the last 80 years (the period from 1941 to 2021). The town has also ignored the "forth" and "fifth" wave of innovation (1950-2020) defined in the graphic above.
Rush had its heyday in the early 1900's. This famous postcard shows water power, rail power and manufacturing, all in the center of the East Rush Hamlet.
Rush did adapt to gasoline engines and electricity. Tractors replaced horses. First steam powered and then gasoline powered. Farmers for the most part adopted to new technology, but farming was the only real business. Other businesses that prospered did so because farming prospered. When farming started to wane so did the businesses tied to farming in Rush.
The decline of Rush as center for business is illustrated by the story of Henry W. Longfellow. Henry ran a brisk business selling farm implements, produce and insurance for 25 years in Rush, from about 1893 until he died in 1918:
Here's a time lapse of Henry's house in the center of East Rush first when business was thriving in the 1900's, then the dilapidated house in 1973, and the eventual destruction of the building in the 1980's. This is the story of every business in Rush that thrived in the early part of the century and was eliminated by "creative destruction" within a cycle of about 80 years.
It seems that the history of Rush related to farming is well remembered. The open spaces and empty voids are celebrated. There is little memory or any consideration for the businesses of 80 years ago. There is no memory of any business being as good as or important as farming.
Bock's store is the Rush Trading Company today: You can buy on e-bay. You can connect with them on Facebook.
Echo Note: as of 2023 these links are dead. So apparently is the Rush Trading company
Here's to the hope that in the drive to preserve pasture, that the town doesn't pass up future prosperity. There are so many choices available by the simultaneous change of the 80 year cycle of a "fourth turning" and a rapid progress of innovation economics. Surely there can be a way to make Rush more prosperous and interesting in some way other than building a Wal Mart or a Dunkin' Donuts. We hope Rush figures it out.
Keep an eye on the calendar and watch for meetings and information on the Comprehensive Plan. The people involved are interested in your ideas and opinions.
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